Swings in Federal Support Credible?

The variation in support for the major parties over recent months seems incredible. The August ’07 results represented a dramatic fall in support for the Coalition, and this seemed to be the low point for the trend that had been building since the June result. An examination of the “History of voting intent” graph elsewhere on this site shows that the data has not jumped around erratically, but has followed longer term trends in support for the major parties. (Our September data will be posted after the West Australian has published the results).

The August and September results are very different in character. So much so that the data has been examined very closely. We are confident that the results are an accurate reflection of voter sentiment. The survey method has been consistent. The sampling has been consistent. Moreover, the preferred Prime Minister data is exactly the same from August to September. If there had been a sample error to the effect that we had over sampled Labor voters in August and / or over sampled Coalition voters in September, the preferred PM data would surely have changed. The fact that the two surveys showed the preferred PM at exactly the same figure strongly supports the proposition that the survey has shown an important shift in voter sentiment. The results to the IR questions addressed in the September survey support this assessment. See the West Australian for details of the September results.