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Patterson’s Assessment | WA Statewide Survey Data | WA Five Seat Summary | Eden-Monaro The results for Eden-Monaro are a little more difficult to assess, in that the survey was taken earlier in the campaign - in fact, prior to the ALP major policy launch, in which the “free hospital/no waiting lists” for people aged 75 years and over was announced. The significance of this election commitment in Eden Monaro may be found in the fact that 65% of people in this electorate are aged over 40 years. The significance of this is that across Australia generally, the proportion of 18-39 and 40 years and over more closely approximates a 50/50 split. In the end, the fact that we overstated the Liberals by nearly 3% and understated Labour by 5.5% is within our expectations given the timing of the survey in relation to the major policy announcements from both parties.
Eden Monaro was difficult to survey in that it has 3 distinct demographic areas. They are the “coastal fringe”, the “rural base” (including the mountains), and the “semi-urban” categories centred largely around the major population centre of Queanbeyan. Patterson took particular care to ensure that the survey sampling reflected the population distributions across these three broad areas, with the effect that our survey results and predictions were very close to the actual result on polling day. |