Questions for the West Australian WESTPOLL Survey this month cover:
Survey conducted 8-10 December 2008
| Patterson’s Assessment | WA Statewide Survey Data | WA Five Seat Summary | Eden-Monaro |
|
In the following few sections we have extracted the primary voting intent data from our mid election campaign report to the West Australian Newspaper. The final pre-election state-wide survey in this series reported here was conducted over September 8 – 9 2004.
The questioning and analysis techniques for this survey have remained consistent throughout the full series of voting intent assessments. The significant fall in the undecided vote from the August through to September data suggests that something has happened in recent weeks to galvanise voter opinions behind the Coalition. There does not appear to have been a material rejection of the ALP, in that their primary vote appears to be essentially the same in September as it was in August (there is very little difference between the 31% and 29% shown for these two months). However, the major impact of the fall in the undecided vote has been to the benefit of the Liberals in particular, who have shown a 5 point gain from the August high of 45% to a record 50% in the current survey result. Note that in spite of the 8% fall in the “undecided” vote, the Greens have only managed to pick up 1 point, as have the Democrats. But they remain relatively minor players in the overall scheme of things, with the Coalition poised to sweep the pool in Western Australia.
When the “don’t know” votes are allocated as in Table T2.1.2 below, we find the Coalition with a slightly even stronger lead than they showed in August, with an indicated 56% primary vote for the Coalition compared to 34% for the ALP. Table T2.1.2 Federal Voting Intenet - Don’t Know Allocated
NB. The allocation of the “Don’t Know” vote for the statewide series follows the relatively simple formula of allocating the “undecideds” in the same proportions as those who are able to decide how they will vote. However, for the final data set in the above table the allocation of the undecideds was based on answers to a question that asked voters to decide on which of the two major parties (LABOR or COALITION) they would “expect able to provide better Federal Government”. That produced the very strong Coalition position in the above. Note the Coalition position before Latham’s elevation to the leadership of the ALP in December 2003. It is very similar to the position reflected in our last two polls. It would appear that the “Latham surge” ran out of puff as voters really examined the man and his policies. In our assessment the election result was not so much a function of people unable to see what Mark Latham was about as it was that they have had the opportunity to have a good look at him & his policies, and decided he was not what they wanted right now. THE PATTERSON DECEMBER 2003 SURVEY OF WA VOTING INTENT The following sections are copied from our report of December 2003. In each case the emphasis in our observations have been added with the benefit of hindsight. The assessment from our December 2003 survey is interesting in that it shows a qualified welcome for Mark Latham to the federal ALP leadership. The table below (and comment following) taken from our December 2003 survey shows response to the question asked to indicate if voters agree or disagreed that the Latham appointment was: Effect of Latham’s Appointment
It appears from the above that in summary, voters are not of the view that Mark Latham would make a good potential prime minister, but they are strongly of the view that he is a good source of new ideas for Labor (53% agree compared to 13% disagree with this statement). There is also a key perception that the appointment will be a real step forward for Labor (46% agree compared to 24% in disagreement with this statement), but there is more equivocation over the issue of whether or not he represents the best chance of Labor winning government (37% in agreement to 34% in disagreement). PATTERSON DECEMBER 2003 SUMMARY
It appears that ALP voters (indeed the general community) have offered some support to the federal Labor party in its choice of Mark Latham. The general view appears to be that Mark Latham will invigorate the party, and represent a “real step forward” for Labor. They are less of the view that he is the best chance of winning government and even less likely to believe that he will make a good potential prime minister (based on their exposure of him to date). None the less, they do believe that it is the best thing for Labor (they are more likely to vote ALP if Latham is the leader rather than Beazley) leaving us with the conclusion that ALP voters are effectively conceding the next election, believing that by investing in Latham and potential for a fresh face and fresh ideas from Labor they will be best placed to take the fight up to the Coalition in the term beyond the next election. It appears that they are conceding defeat in the coming election, with a view to building a strong base for the party going into the election beyond that.
(NB emphasis added with benefit of hindsight). Patterson’s Assessment | WA Statewide Survey Data | WA Five Seat Summary | Eden-Monaro |