|
Our Services | Flashpoll | Westpoll | Other Services About Westpoll | Current Month’s Questions | History of Voting Intent | Federal Election 2007 Assessment History of Voting Intent WA State Voting Intent Patterns | Federal Voting Intent Patterns The graphs show the voting intent as measured in monthly WestPolls through 1999 to 2010 West Australian State Voting Intent Patterns STATE VOTING INTENT 2010
STATE VOTING INTENT 2007 - 2009 August 2009 sees the Liberal/National government slip below 50% for the first time since the pre-election polls. With this shift comes a relative jump in popularity for the ALP, garnering its highest level of would-be voters since this time last year. Note however that in August ’08 the minor parties (mostly the Greens) had 23% of the vote, which would probably have given the two party preferred result to the (then) Carpenter Government. Currently the minor parties only have 13%, which is not enough to get the ALP up, had an election been held in August ’09. The minor parties’ combined popularity has held steady through the past six months and although we saw a 6% shift from the Coalition towards the ALP this month, the gap would still be wide enough for Colin Barnett’s liking.
STATE VOTING INTENT 2005 The second half of 2005 showed a fairly stable position in that the Govt was either just in front or just behind the coalition, with effectively the Greens determining the outcome of any election. However, the final survey of ’05 showed a very slight margin for the Coalition on a two party preferred basis – a lead of approximately 1.5%, which is within sample error for the survey. Our assessment is that the 2005 year showed an element of voter disenchantment with the Gallop Govt, but with little effective activity from the opposition to bring about any real desire for change.
2002 The survey results for 2002 started in February, with the Coalition still in a commanding, that position quickly eroded in March, bounced back in April, and settled to 40% for two months (May and June). It is interesting that the “Other” proportion seems to have increased each month as the Coalition support in particular fell away in May to July. The minor party vote in July was the highest for the year. Now in August, the “other minor party” vote has fallen significantly to just 16%, evidently to the benefit of both the ALP and the Conservative parties. This would seem to be a reflection of the disharmony in the Democrat and One Nation camps.
2001 The data in 2001 is interrupted by Federal Election surveying in June, September, October and November. Note that the data in January supported the Premier Court decision to call an election early in the year. At that point, the Coalition had a margin over the ALP, rounding out a surge in support for the Coalition which started to move from November of 2000. However, once the election was called voter support for the Coalition started to dissipate. The results from February and March (held just prior to the election) clearly indicated a fairly solid win for the ALP. Note also that in the months immediately following the election, support for the ALP continued at a strong level, but the situation had been reversed by the December survey. The surge in Federal support for the Coalition through September, October, and November appears to have been translated into strong support for the Coalition at a State level as well.
2000 The graph below shows the State Voting Intent through the year of 2000. Note the ALP lead in February is quite dramatic, in fact the ALP had a quite comfortable lead over the Coalition in most months of the year, particularly February, June and November. Support for the Coalition peaked in May, July and September. The upward swing in voting support for the Coalition in November and December may have encouraged the then Premier, Richard Court, to call the election early in 2001.
1999 The graph following shows the State voting intent over the 1999 Calendar Year. It shows that the Coalition had a margin over the ALP in January, June, September and October only. In the months of March and April, the electoral support for the two major parties was the same (at 44% each). In February, May, August, November and December, the ALP held a quite comfortable margin over the Coalition. (There was no survey in July that year).
|
